Thursday, March 23Welcome

What’s working: Colorado business leaders are pessimistic about 2023.

A survey of 143 business leaders in Colorado found that the group is still pessimistic about the new year, with more than half expecting a US recession within the next six months, according to the Business Research Division at the University of Leeds. I understand that you think you will be in. Colorado.

As such, Leeds’ Business Confidence Index, which asks about sales, profits, employment and capital spending, remained at 39.8, the fourth lowest in its 20-year history. A score of 50 is considered neutral. A year ago the index was 58.0.

In a quarterly survey of 143 business leaders in Colorado, the Leeds Business Confidence Index recorded sentiment for the first quarter of 2023 as pessimistic, with a rating of 39.8, down from 4 in 20 years. tied with the lowest rating. A rating below 50 means the outlook is much more pessimistic. This report is provided by the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The sentiment came as the economy showed signs of growth again, with US gross domestic product up 3.2% in the third quarter and falling slightly for two quarters. At the same time, Colorado’s GDP annual rate he rose 3.5%. Job creation within the state also increased, though not as much as before, so the need to hire more workers continued.

So when we asked Rich Wobbekind, senior economist in the school’s business research department who conducted the survey, why were they so negative?

“The fact that four of the metrics are based internally tells me they’re processing more information internally that their business is slowing down,” Wobbekind said Wednesday. said at a press conference. “It’s not inconsistent, but it seems a little more bearish than some of the other confidence indicators, especially given the fact that Colorado is doing better than the rest of the country.”

A few as-yet-unknown factors could change everything, but he added that the negative sentiment could be based on who you ask. took a bigger hit as interest rates surged in This has pushed up the cost of new mortgages, causing homebuyers to pause their searches and cut back on financing jobs.

Rich Wobbkind, senior economist in the School of Business Studies at the Colorado Business Economic Outlook conference in Denver, December 5, 2022 (Tamara Chuang, The Colorado Sun)

But that feedback, along with looking at several other economic indicators, has led Leeds economists to forecast Colorado’s growth this year, albeit at a slower rate than last year.Colorado forecast:

  • Employment is projected to grow by 4.4% year-on-year in 2022 and a further 2% in 2023.
  • State personal income growth was 7.9% annualized as of the third quarter of 2022 and is expected to increase by 6.2% in 2023.
  • Colorado’s GDP is projected to grow 2% this year.
  • Inflation is expected to rise by 4.5% this year, more moderately than last year.

“You may be wondering if our forecast is stronger than it should be,” said Wobbekind. “We don’t think so.”

>> Read the forecast for Leeds

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45% of WW survey respondents have received a raise

Personal income increased in all 50 states in the third quarter of last year. But it didn’t rise as much as Colorado’s 14.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Whether workers switched jobs for better wages, successful contract negotiations with unions, or employers raising wages to retain employees, the It was a good year.

This year may be the same. CU’s business school predicts that his personal income will increase by 6.2% this year. Also, last year’s high inflation rate had an impact on the cost of living for those receiving minimum wages, government benefits, or other periodic wage increases.

45% of 134 respondents to What’s Working’s latest non-scientific survey, “Are you getting a raise?”

Got a raise in 2023? Participate in voting:

Many survey participants shared additional comments about salary increases. “I’m a railroad conductor. Lately my pay raise has been widely publicized,” writes Sean Seeley, who lives in Fort Collins.

He confirmed that he was part of a group of railroad workers who negotiated a 24% wage increase on a five-year contract. He hasn’t had a raise since his July 2019, so some negotiations included a retroactive payment of his 14% paid earlier this week. Furthermore, he added that 4% will appear in his July.

“As you can imagine, going long without a raise feels like you’re falling behind inflation like we’ve experienced recently,” he said. “Conversely, when you get a 14% raise at once, it feels like you’ve won a pretty good prize. The deal has leveled us.”

Marnie Lansdown, office manager at Freedom Service Dogs in Inglewood, also received a significant 13% raise. But for various reasons.

“I work in the non-profit sector and my organization has pushed up the salaries of virtually all of our hourly employees to help our staff stay ahead of inflation,” Lansdowne said. “As a result, as far as I can tell, employees are much more likely to like their employers and stay with the company.”

But of course, about 55% of respondents either did not receive a raise or do not plan to do so in 2023. For some, it’s because he got a raise last year (“In 2022 he’s up 16%, so it’s a paycheck,” said one). Another said he hadn’t had a job in a long time and wasn’t expecting it. Others understand the economy is slowing, with 15% saying, “Okay. Times are tough for employers.”

Others simply answered “no” or “want to”.

But sometimes even a raise didn’t help. One person who received her 3% cost-of-living adjustment as a state employee added: ”

But the year just started. There is still hope. Laurie Thomas, a part-time nurse in Pueblo, decided to ask for a raise after working for 14 months.Her employer said ok to her, but she didn’t say how much it would cost. Prolenetathat is, she works when she needs to.

“The PRN nurses hadn’t been around that long, so nobody seems to have thought about it,” Thomas said. Let’s see!”

Other working bits

➔ Upcoming job fairs: The Colorado Department of Corrections Still Needs Workers. The remaining three are in Sterling (January 11), Colorado Springs (January 25) and Pueblo (January 26). Corrections Officer 1 has a starting salary of “$50,000 or more per year,” with advertised employment incentives of up to $12,000. >> detail, virtual registration

➔ Jobs are still growing but slowing down: Slowing job growth is the economy’s mantra in 2022, and the last month of the year was no outlier. According to the Labor Department, he added 223,000 jobs in the US in December. That’s slower growth than in recent months, but it means the US continues to add jobs. The country’s unemployment rate he dropped to 3.5%, returning to pre-pandemic lows. Colorado data will be published two weeks after him. >> report, new york times

➔ Rounds of EV credits available in Colorado: Various public programs are in place to offset the cost of purchasing an electric vehicle.Colorado Sun reporter Michael Booth I will explain what is available. >> read

➔ 1 more week to try terrible internet speeds: $42.5 billion in federal funding is available to help states invest in better broadband infrastructure and provide more jobs. Colorado officials are encouraging residents with substandard service to check their national broadband map for status. >> read

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Thank you for joining us for this week’s report. As always, please share your two cents on how the economy is holding you back or helping you at ~ Tamara

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