Imagine that you are hiring top executives from Fortune 500 companies and are competing with other top executives for candidates. Over the years, there has been a lot of turnover in the industry, with a few companies successfully poaching certain candidate pools. Other companies tried to mine the same pool with varying degrees of success until the pool was exhausted.
And what if that pool, by definition, is full of people with no real work experience?
This is the location of the 2023 NFL Coaching Carousel.
The early successes of Sean McVay in Los Angeles and Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco Next A version of them that has been running for 5 years now. In 2017, when they were hired, four of the league’s six new head coaches were under the age of 46, their first time in a top role. Shanahan and McVay came from the offensive side, while his other two, Vance Joseph and Sean McDermott, came from the defensive side.
Geography, quarterbacks and money could work in Payton’s favor.
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Since then, 37 head coaches have been hired over five coaching cycles. Twelve of them were his first NFL head coaches under the age of 46. Given that Matt Rule, Joe Judge and Cliff Kingsbury were also in the same age group and had an offensive background at the NFL level (Rule and Judge as coaches, Kingsbury as player), that number he increases to 15 people. Former Dolphins and Jets coach Adam Gase is his 16th in that age group and comes from an offensive background.
Meanwhile, only five defensive coaches in that age group got their first shots, and only 11 coaches with previous NFL head coaching experience were hired.
Will this be the year things turn around?
I believe we will see the resulting reality of all this on Monday. The pool of young offensive coaches is not as common as his defensive coaches. From what I’ve seen, there’s a handful of young offensive coordinators mixed in (Philadelphia’s Shane Steichen, Buffalo’s Ken Dorsey, Cincinnati’s Brian Callahan, Detroit’s Ben Johnson), but the numbers are on defense. , has a backlog of talented players. Candidates (New England’s DeMeco Ryans and Jerod Mayo, Dallas’ Dan Quinn, Philly’s Jonathan Gannon, Cincinnati’s Lou Anarumo, Detroit’s Aaron Glenn and Pittsburgh’s Brian Flores) are waiting.
Raheem Morris of Joseph and the Rams also has a couple who have head coaching experience.
In addition to the dynamics I wrote about in a future GM column on Friday, owner-driven searches make it more likely that more experienced coaches will be hired for head coaching jobs. If you can put yourself in that fictional CEO position, it actually makes a lot of sense.
Along those lines, here are the rumored factories entering Week 18…
• The Panthers vs. Saints game will not be evaluated tomorrow, but Carolina’s play could impact the carousel. Interim coach Steve Wilkes has done an admirable job keeping the team in the playoff mix through Week 17. Owner David Tepper is conscious of the climate in his building.The locker room is behind Wilkes. It’s solidly there… building an edgy identity behind a tough run game in the second half of the year. If Wilkes stays, he’ll have to map out an offensive plan. After firing Matt Ruhl, the Panthers spent considerable time researching a young offensive coach. Wilkes could bring in someone like Philadelphia quarterback coach Brian Johnson. The Carolina people believe that a good run in New Orleans on Sunday could have a big impact on Wilkes getting that shot.
• We heard Carolina GM Scott Fitter was laying the groundwork for finding the next coach, so Tepper hired him (we know he likes him) and his HR staff. i think i will keep it. If Tepper is hit with a coach in 2020 just like the rules, and that coach has the power to push his own GM.
• I think the same can be said for Broncos GM George Payton and Colts GM Chris Ballard. This brings us to the charm of the ball.
• The first is former Saints coach Sean Payton. Geography is as important to Payton as quarterbacks and money. And I don’t know if any jobs will open up that check all those boxes. , could throw that sack at Peyton. Or, for that matter, Kyler Murray of Arizona, depending on what happens in Kingsbury?? To me, Chargers has the most to offer and remains the company Payton wants and I don’t think that job will ever open up.for Payton To do If he gets the job, he’ll probably want to bring along a GM, either Saints assistant GM Jeff Ireland or former Bears GM Ryan Pace.
• Payton’s wild card for me is Miami. out kick Armando Salguero, who has been involved with the Dolphins for decades, said on Thursday that first-year coach Mike McDaniel may not be safe if Sunday’s game against the Jets goes wrong. Reported. I hadn’t heard of it. Honestly, we only know if someone like Payton, who last year Miami offered him his four-year, $100 million deal, will make it to the endgame. Otherwise, I think McDaniel will stick around, perhaps with changes to the defensive staff.
• Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy and Chargers coach Brandon Staley should be safe. The former has major injuries to his quarterback and left tackle, but he could win 12 if the Cowboys beat Washington. The latter advanced to the playoffs in the second year. But I’ve heard enough that if the first round of the playoffs doesn’t go well for either guy, it’s not 100% whichever happens. Relevant (and with his love of living in Southern California and having Justin Herbert there and his longstanding ties to the Cowboys, he makes $20 million a year to get these jobs) .
• On the other hand, there is an expectation that Broncos CEO Greg Penner’s initial search for Denver bosses will focus on experienced individuals. He and minority shareholder Condoleezza Rice, as well as Broncos icon John Elway, are linked to Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, and I expect Harbaugh to join this team.Cowboys ‘s defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is another obvious name to watch, given his work in Dallas and his ties to both Payton and Wilson (Quinn was one of Wilson’s first two Super Bowl seasons). was the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks).
• No one knows where Colts owner Jim Irsay’s search will take him. But Harbo is a name to watch. Clearly, Harbaugh knows Irsay well, and he played for him in the ’90s. Also, the man I think he’s one of Harbaugh’s GM names is already at Indy, Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds. With a roster that reveals some similarities to what Harbaugh had in San Francisco a decade ago, there’s a reason why a fit there makes sense: If not for Harbaugh, the Bills’ defensive coordinator and former Colts assistant Leslie he should keep an eye on Frasier. (Also, with Irsay’s fondness for his old center, we can’t entirely rule out the possibility that Jeff Saturday will stick around, but that’s unlikely.)
• Two other GM names associated with Harbaugh are former Jaguars, Eagles, and 49ers executive Tom Gamble and Ravens football research director Scott Cohen (or someone from Baltimore’s human resources department, such as Joe Hortiz). am. So… will Harbaugh leave Michigan? The program is going well and he will be back with a very good team. But with NCAA sanctions looming, I hear he called the Panthers because he was interested in the job.
If Kingsbury doesn’t stay in Arizona, expect Vance Joseph to be the frontrunner to replace him.
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• The situation is fluid in Arizona. GM Steve Keim continues to take time off for health reasons, and his future with the team is up in the air (I wouldn’t rule out that he’ll maintain some form after his time off). Quentin Harris of personnel and Adrian Wilson, vice president of Pro Scouts, will fill the GM role in a joint GM-type setup (these two are currently filling in for Keem on an interim basis). Everything seems to be on the table when it comes to Kingsbury: a dismissal, a negotiated exit, or a fifth season in the desert. Without Kingsbury, I think Joseph would be the frontrunner. of A prime candidate to replace him.
• The big question in Houston is whether GM Nick Caserio will leave this season with the same level of force that could lead to his third coaching search in three years. There are a lot of internal questions about Lovie Smith’s viability as head coach heading into 2023. Still, the Eagles’ DC Gannon and the Niners’ DC and former Texans captain Ryans have confirmed that his I think it’s likely that he’ll be gone as the frontrunner for the seat. Given his relationship with Caserio, Flores would be another name to watch.
• Tampa Bay and New Orleans may have unexpected developments, but I think the Buccaneers and Saints will be fine, but they may make significant changes to their offensive staff. We could also see such a change taking place in Cleveland’s defense and New England’s offense (a building owner with an unconventional set-up on the other side of the ball could see a expressing displeasure with people).