If you’re anything like me, it raised quite a few eyebrows when the 5-7 Detroit Lions popped up as the betting favorites against the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings in the divisional showdown in Week 14. I would have hid. 500 in his eight or more games since the 1970 merger, and is still considered an underdog against clubs with a losing record (except for teams resting their starters).
This shift in momentum came after the Vikings first opened as the 2.5-point favorites before Week 13. The Vikings and Lions won their respective matches. By noon Monday, the script had flipped in Detroit’s favor, and they now have two points in this head-to-head.
When asked about his team’s favor over the Vikings team, which simply needs a win or a draw to lock NFC North on Sunday, Lions head coach Dan Campbell said: Stated. MLive.com“I was shocked by it.”
Campbell, like most people, might come as a shock, but when you look a little closer at these two teams, it’s not all that surprising.
Featured games | | Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Especially when it comes to the Lions, they’ve been playing solid football lately. They have won four of their last five games (all five games), including a 40-point avalanche against the Jaguars in Week 13. In the past five weeks, the Lions have allowed just 19.8 points per game, making him the second-lowest passer in the league. Through his first six weeks of the season, they were allowing both the best points per game average and the best passer rating in the league. Detroit is also lined up for the league lead in takeaways this stretch.
Additionally, the Lions are the perfect team to bet on under Campbell. The team is 19-10 ATS under Campbell, tied for their second-best ATS record since the start of last season. Detroit also covers seven straight division games, including his ATS record of 3-0 this season.
While these numbers alone make Detroit a compelling team, there’s another side to the coin. Viking.
Despite going 10-2 on the season and just one step away from dominating NFC North, Minnesota may be fools’ gold. His DVOA for the Vikings is the lowest (21st) among 10-2 teams in NFL history, according to Football Outsiders. This season’s team’s +10 points difference is also the worst among teams with 10 wins in 12 games in the history of the league.
So far, the Vikings’ Achilles heel — and what could prove to be their fatal flaw in this matchup and going forward — has been secondary. He has allowed 283.6 yards passing and 8 yards per attempt going into Week 14, both of which rank 32nd in the NFL. ranks 18th or lower in the league in completion percentage, TD-INT ratio and passer rating.
So, while the records between these two divisional rivalries might tell one story, the line of head-to-head and the stats to the point tell an entirely different story.