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The Fundamentally Shifting Turkish Political Balance

In no other country is the political awareness of the population as high as in Turkey. As a result of such perceptions, Turkey’s internal politics presents a dynamic structure. Public opinion is always driven by government performance and opposition narratives.

Until the last four or five months, Turkish citizens have paid attention to what the opposition is saying and what the opposition bloc, known as the “Table of Six,” is debating. Turkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) has been in power for her 20 years, but remains the first party to win nearly 40% of the vote. But he stayed in power for so long, and the implicit demands of voters gave rise to expectations of whether the opposition would prove its worth. And this expectation has sometimes brought the opposition’s votes closer to the ruling party’s level.

But after the economy stabilized again, the ruling party began to regain popularity. Market prices have remained stable over the past two months. The US dollar and Turkish lira exchange rate fluctuates only when the dollar’s position relative to other major currencies changes in international markets. Money flows in the economy are stable.

Another change in Türkiye is the demand curve. All infrastructure investments in Turkey were complete when local elections were held in 2019. People were well aware that the infrastructure was there and they were using it. Voters’ motivations are therefore directed towards more personal demands rather than expensive infrastructure investments. Voters demanded improved personal benefits, including salaries, health care, student assistance, scholarships, and social assistance to the poor.

voter message

The AK party government continues to primarily deal with the country’s problems. The government has demonstrated decisive action in the administration of the country, especially in international relations. The AK Party also accurately interpreted the message of voters’ individual demands in the last election. Looking back at the government’s post-election performance, regular salary hikes, increased social support, and realistic minimum wage adjustments in line with purchasing power were the factors that gradually reaffirmed public confidence in the government. I understand that.

The period of all these developments corresponds to a series of global catastrophes that have changed only the international paradigm: pandemics, regional conflicts, wars, supply chain disruptions, food supply. and energy crisis. Of course, domestic politics are inevitably influenced by foreign policy. In particular, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s role in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is beginning to gradually influence domestic politics. As developing countries face poverty and hunger, President Erdogan’s resolution of the grain crisis between Ukraine and Russia has had an impact on domestic politics.

Visit Samarkand and New York

President Erdogan’s attendance at the 22nd Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) State Council Summit and his speech at the 77th UN General Assembly Annual Session in New York marked such an impact on domestic politics. increased. With Turkiye active in many areas of Africa, Central Asia and Europe, Erdogan will find success in international relations and the sympathy of voters will come to favor the government of this country. These days, Turkiye and Erdogan have more influence in resolving some issues than the United Nations and its Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

In addition to all this, the affordable housing initiative by state-run housing construction company TOKI is also on the rise. As in the previous 15 years, the government will now lead politics and the opposition will debate the consequences. In this sense, the AK party’s vote share is gradually increasing, but support for all opposition parties continues to decline as interest in the Republican People’s Party (CHP) fades from the luster it had a few months ago. I guess.

I believe that if this wave continues for another two months, parties will approach the same share of the vote as in the previous election, promising a bright future for the ruling party.

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